Macroeconomic impact of mobilizations and displacements due to violence

Abstract

The phenomenon of internal displacement causes both psychological and economic impacts. These impacts can affect macroeconomic variables, influencing the low growth experienced in recent years, not least appreciating the amount of money that the government or public sector spends on related programs, diverting funds that could be used to strengthen infrastructure, programs of education and health, and strengthen the internal economy of the country. The study consists of quantifying the impact of internal mobilizations due to violence on the main macroeconomic variables in El Salvador. The research is exploratory and explanatory. Information was obtained on the phenomenon under study to analyze it and conclude on it. Statistical mathematical models, mainly econometric, were used to search for impacts and relationships between the study variables, as long as the available information allowed it. The results indicate a significant impact on consumption, but not on investment and school dropout, derived from violence. In terms of growth, the economically active population, average schooling and the displaced variable are not statistically significant, indicating a null impact on the Gross Domestic Product. The displaced have impacted unemployment and consumption at the macroeconomic level. These impacts should be taken with caution when formulating conclusions, due to the existing limitations in the information and the assumptions made to distribute the number of displaced people over time.