Operational safety tool on track strip with probabilistic models of track excursions

Abstract

This paper is about the development of a tool for operational safety analysis in the runway strip, using probabilistic models of runway excursion accidents. A preliminary tool is presented to characterize and evaluate the operational risk present in runway strips and associated areas in airports with comercial air operations. The conclusions and recommendations obtained as a result allow achieving a significant contribution to an improvement in operational safety. In addition, the development is validated through the application of the tool developed in a specific airport in the ICAO SAM region. Through the bibliographic information collected, the analysis of the existing methodologies associated with risk models was carried out. The most common problems were analyzed in runway strips of airports with commercial air traffic of the SAM region. With the information obtained and the criteria adopted it proceeded to identify the main risk factors in the runway strips and associated areas. Through the characterization of the accidents that occurred, the severity of each existing risk was determined, which serves as a basis for the development of the tool able to identify the preliminary risk and evaluate it. The most significant airports in the region were identified with respect to operations, and then the tool developed was applied in one of them was to validate it.