Using cellular automata as spatial modeling technique for determining the change in land use and land cover

Abstract

Currently, human activities cause significant modifications in the landscape producing changes in the natural and the productive systems, as well as ecological processes. One of these changes can be evidenced clearly in the Ecuadorian Amazon, where the intense dynamics of the “Land Use Cover” due to human settlement that began tendency with the fuel oil industry has caused disappearance of the majority of primary forest with consequent loss of thousands of species of plants and animals.

In this Project, we used a methodology to evaluate the effect of these phenomena occurred at different periods of time and through the technique of Cellular Automata we elaborated the spatial modeling of the Land Use Cover in the area between “CompañíaAgrícolaPayamino and PoblaciónCallanayacu” located in Orellana Province, with an extension of 6038.22 hectares.

By the technique of the Interpretación Digital, we analized the “Land Use Change Cover” between 1965 and 2001 periods. On this basis, we generated two prospective scenarios for the years 2011 and 2020, indicating that by 2011 the 91.39% of the primary forest has disappeared and by 2020 it will represent only 4.51% of the total area, with a tendency to disappear completely if the current conditions continue.

Revista Ciencias Espaciales, Volumen 8, Número 1 Primavera, 2015; 310-326