Rules of origin and internationalization strategies under the CAFTA-DR framework: a comprehensive model proposal for Honduras

Abstract

The United States is the main trading partner for Central America, with particular emphasis on Honduras, whose commercial relations gained greater strength with the signing of the Dominican Republic–Central America–United States Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). However, its utilization remains limited due to restrictions caused by rules of origin, which determine eligibility for tariff preferences through criteria such as tariff shift or regional value content. The lack of institutional, technical, and business capacities, together with export concentration in a few traditional products, has hindered the effective use of the agreement. This study aims to analyze the internationalization strategies that countries like Honduras can adopt in response to the restrictions and opportunities of CAFTA-DR. A bibliometric analysis of literature indexed in Web of Science (2019–2024) was conducted to identify global trends on rules of origin and trade agreements, complemented by an empirical analysis of Honduras–United States trade balance data (2019–2025). The results indicate that Honduras continues to export mainly traditional products and must shift toward diversified internationalization strategies supported by innovation, institutional strengthening, public–private cooperation, and a focus on productive transformation and strategic integration into global value chains.