Growth, economic cycles, and GDP gap of Honduras 2000-2022: analysis and projections

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5377/eya.v16i1.19210

Keywords:

Growth, ARIMA, Stationary, Cycles, Potential Output

Abstract

The analysis conducted in this study aims to examine the behavior and forecast of real production and growth of Honduras during the period 2000-2022. In the first part, the quarterly real GDP data is replicated using univariate ARIMA models with different AR and MA levels, as well as a constant value for the drift, and finally, an adjustment with dummy variables for relevant shock periods. The process of selecting the best model is thoroughly described and explained. In this stage, short-term projections are also made and analyzed, specifically for 8 quarters into the future.

In the second part, the economic cycles of Honduras during the period are estimated, emphasizing the duration and amplitude of the recession and expansion stages, as well as the average duration of the cycles. Finally, an analysis of potential GDP and the output gap is conducted, highlighting moments of greater boom or gap. Two filtering techniques, whose empirical relevance has been the subject of debate in recent years, are used for these analyses: the Hodrick-Prescott and Hamilton filters.

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Published

2024-12-10

How to Cite

Santos Barahona, D. U. (2024). Growth, economic cycles, and GDP gap of Honduras 2000-2022: analysis and projections. Economía Y Administración (E&Amp;A), 16(1), 5–50. https://doi.org/10.5377/eya.v16i1.19210

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Articles