Determinants of education goals and the millennium development goals in Honduras

Abstract

Since 1990-2012, basic primary education has been a priority in Honduras’ education policy, with similar importance in the Millennium Development Goals. The objective of this study is to identify and quantify the determinants of school enrollment, grade promotion, and graduation rates in primary school, and to reach an understanding of the role of various factors in the timely completion of primary education by Honduras’ youth. This work aims primarily to quantify the relationship between education outcomes and socio-economic and policy variables to inform the MAMS general equilibrium model of Honduras, but it also serves to identify the policies that are most likely to improve outcomes and reach development objectives. We find that socio-economic and policy variables vary in their impact in education outcomes. We conclude that there are significant opportunities for policy makers to increase the impact of policies on education outcomes, particularly the effectiveness of spending on timely education achievement, but also though improvements in socio-economic conditions. A key lesson of this study is that it provides a rigorous example of how to analyze the effect of policy on outcomes, requiring detailed data and proper statistical technique to provide better information when making policy decisions.