A hypothesis on the increase lemon price in Mexico, 2022

Abstract

In the first quarter of 2022, the price of lemons reached retail prices never before recorded in the Mexican economy. Despite the fact that Mexico is the second largest producer of lemons internationally, a kilogram was sold for up to $120 Mexican pesos (approximately 6.00 US dollars) in popular markets and supermarkets. This situation caused anger in Mexican households because lemons, in addition to being part of the basic food basket, are the basis of many daily dishes and are commonly used to treat and cure various ailments and diseases. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to propose a hypothesis about the increase in the price of lemons in Mexico based on a mismatch between supply and demand. For this purpose, national statistics on production, consumption, and exports were reviewed to delimit this market mismatch. It is concluded that the preference of large producers to place their product in foreign markets that pay in dollars, as well as an unexpected boom in the consumption of lemons and their pharmaceutical derivatives to prevent and cure COVID-19 in the United States, are responsible for the market mismatch