Current evidence of the influence of climate change on the variable daily rainfall observed in Honduras from the database available to date

Abstract

The Honduran territory since some years ago has been affected by extreme weather events maximum that have harmed the Honduran economy; leaving strong negative impact on the society and painful memories of deceased persons. Global atmospheric models to study the influence of climate change have been applied in Honduras; the results obtained are projections at the time of the climatic behavior based on certain assumptions. Interesting results to be taken into account by those responsible for the planning of the country.

In the present research we have used daily rainfall data collected in the entire network of stations feeler rain that exists in the Honduran territory, since the 2013 toward years ago; that is to say the entire series available. The series of daily rainfall obtained have different lengths; by which we have classified these series in different lengths, in order to use the increased amount available data. Punctual and spatial analysis were applied to know the quality of the same.

Using simple regression was investigated the trend of daily rainfall averages of 3, 5, 10, 20, 30, 90, 180, 365, 1025, 1825 and 3650 days; these averages were determined by the arithmetic mean and the moving average. It was also investigated the trends of the days without rain for the series of 365 days.

The influence of climate change in the rain to daily resolution and as quantity not still displays well-defined evidence on the linear trend of increase or decrease in the size of the variable. The slopes of the trends are very low to define significantly the increase or decrease of the rain.