Data analysis applied to the evolution of the dependence on intergovernmental transfers: A case study in Colombia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5377/reice.v11i22.17365Keywords:
conditional national transfers, government spending, income, intergovernmental relations, k-means, taxesAbstract
Most modern democracies have administratively decentralized a large part of their functions, granting municipal territories autonomy to manage the collection and expenditure of tax revenues. However, another type of income at the local level is transferred from the central government with a specific allocation, compared to which the municipalities have no autonomy in spending. These conditional or nation-specific transfers in many cases represent the most significant part of the income. Therefore, we want to determine whether the levels of dependence on transfers are due to administration decisions or, on the contrary, respond to common regional characteristics, implementing an index to measure the dependence on conditional transfers from the nation to the municipalities, taking as a study of case these territorial entities in a department of Colombia. Data on the total income and national transfers of the municipalities were collected for the fiscal periods between 2008 and 2020. To better analyze the dependence on such transfers in the municipalities during this period, the k-means classification algorithm was applied, the which found that the municipalities can be grouped into three conglomerates. Firstly, it was found that most municipalities have a high dependence on transfers from the nation. Likewise, regional clusters were identified, in which the areas historically affected by the armed conflict and the planting of illicit crops presented the greatest dependence.
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