Catastrophic and utopian scenarios of maternal deaths, Danlí, Honduras, 2018-2030

Abstract

Background: The Government of Honduras transcribed its commitment to comply with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for year 2030. The SDG 3 proposes to reach a rate of 70 maternal deaths at national level for every 100 thousand live births. From 2006 to 2017, the health information system in Danlí, El Paraíso, captured 41 maternal deaths. Compliance with the SDGs means that by the year 2030 this would represent 129 maternal deaths distributed in the 18 departments of Honduras. Objective: To build maternal mortality scenarios at Danli District, Honduras, for the period 2018-2030. Methodology: Qualitative and quantitative study. We build catastrophic and utopic scenarios using the prospective method and the focal group technique. Focal group participants included representatives from the Ministry of Health and the community. All participants provided verbal informed consent. Results: The analyzed results revealed that during the next 13 years in Danli district could possible occur a catastrophic scenario of 115 maternal deaths or a utopian scenario of 34 maternal deaths. Discussion: The catastrophic scenario suggests that this will be ascending only if interventions are not made. The utopian scenario will be descendant if effective health interventions are carried out.