Foresight analysis of the development of organized crime in El Salvador for the five year period of 2014 - 2019

Abstract

The possible developments of organized crime in El Salvador for the 2014 – 2019 period are studied using a Foresight analysis of scenarios. With this purpose, a concept of the word scenario is initially established, including an explanation on what scenario building consists of, how scenarios are built and which is the reason for building them. Subsequently, several methods for scenario building are described and the most appropriate one for addressing organized crime is established. The emancipatory method was selected because it is considered to be the best technical basis and to have greater results in terms of social utility and decision making.
With this method, the factors for defining the conditions that affect the variables that can cause possible scenarios are identified, using hypothesis verification through interviews, statistics, literature reviews and field visits in order to shape the evolution of organized crime under three different situations regarding such variables: First, a situation in which the variables do not change, second, one in which the variables worsen, and third, one in which actions are taken for the variables to improve.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/rpsp.v4i2.1761