Forecast of disability-adjusted life years due to depressive disorders in the salvadoran population

Abstract

Depression is the leading cause of disability worldwide and has a high national prevalence, especially in the female population. In addition, it’s associated with an increased risk of suicide and a lower quality of life. Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) are a synthetic indicator that quantifies the impact of diseases, both due to the disability they generate and their associated premature death, which can help measure the impact of this disorder. The objective of this research is to forecast DALYs due to depressive disorders in the Salvadoran population until the year 2024. The study has a quantitative, non-experimental, and longitudinal design. Data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on depressive disorders from 1990 to 2019 in the country was used and forecasted until 2024 using Brown’s double exponential smoothing method. The time series describes a sharp increase in DALYs due to depressive disorders since 2003, and the forecast estimates that this trend will continue. The sex-differentiated models indicate a higher prevalence in the female population, and both models predict an increase in DALYs, although more pronounced in the male population. The results show the significant disability weight of depressive disorders in the population and the sharp difference in their impact by sex. Also, the pandemic context may aggravate these forecasts. It also highlights the need for similar research on other mental disorders.