Composite index to determine the risk of food insecurity at the municipal level in El Salvador: Flores-Romero Index

Abstract

The lack of access to safe and nutritious food can lead to serious health problems; and food insecurity can affect productivity, education, and the investment capacity of the population, which can have a negative impact on long-term economic growth. Therefore, it is crucial to have a tool to assess the food security situation in a country and take appropriate measures to address the identified gaps, both at the national and subnational levels.

The article discusses the construction and development of the Composite Food Insecurity Index called the Flores-Romero Index in El Salvador; an essential tool for informed decision-making and the promotion of food security at the subnational (municipal) level. The Flores-Romero Index uses an econometric-health model for production forecasting; specifically, a multivariate Autoregressive Vector model to estimate which municipalities will be in deficit or surplus of production, of corn and/or beans, for a specific year; and then calculates the Index in question, using variables that make up a Municipal Prioritization Matrix.

The results allow for the prioritization of which municipalities have a higher risk of food insecurity, based on a higher Flores-Romero Index, informing decision-makers. The index can also be used as a reference framework for measuring progress in the implementation of policies and programs aimed at improving food security over time.