The demographic bonus in Central America

Abstract

The demographic transition theory as explaining demographic change continues in the region, where the Central American countries move in different stages of the consequences of non- synchronized declines in fertility and mortality that explain the increase in population and changes in the structures age, leading to declines in demographic dependency ratios (dependent populations between potentially active) values never before seen in history, providing an opportunity for economic growth, called demographic dividend. The test includes a review of the main demographic trends on the Central American countries in recent decades, where the four located in the northern part have a similar stage in the classification according to the stages of the demographic transition, while those in the south have a more advanced position in the process. In turn, the changes made in demographic indicators are analyzed, increasing population growth and changes in age structures, such as dependency ratios and the threshold of the dividend in each country. Then analyzes how demographic changes affect economic growth, taking into account the producer and consumer populations in the economic dependency ratio. In ana­lyzing the database population and the projected population of each country building Latin American Demographic Centre (CELADE) and the Population Division of the United Nations will be used.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/pdac.v10i0.1742

Revista Población y Desarrollo: Argonautas y Caminantes, Vol. 10, 2014: 105-118