Spatial analysis of homicidal violence in the northern region of Central America (2019-2020)

Abstract

The literature on spatial analysis has shown that homicidal violence is not distributed randomly across the territory, but tends to cluster in space and time. Therefore, this study aims to identify, in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, the spatial patterns of homicidal violence in the northern region of Central America. Given the quantitative focus of the study, exploratory spatial data analysis techniques were used to identify patterns of spatial association. Lisa maps (Morán Local I) were used to classify spatial patterns. The information on homicides at the municipal level was collected through the police institutions of Guatemala and El Salvador; in the case of Honduras, the information was downloaded from the open data portal of the Integrated Information System for Coexistence and Citizen Security Policies. A database was created in Excel, the statistical calculations were carried out with GeoDa and the maps were prepared in QGis. The results revealed a paradox: despite the general decrease in homicide rates in the region as a result of the lockdown, there was also a considerable increase in municipalities considered as emerging hot zones, with a pattern of contagion, related to changes in the nodes, routes and limits of social interaction caused by government restrictions on mobility. It was also evident that violence has shifted from large cities to smaller cities, as in the case of Zacapa in Guatemala and Yoro in Honduras. On the other hand, the areas considered "cold" are limited in Honduras and El Salvador. In Guatemala, on the other hand, there are a considerable number of municipalities in the latter category. This research on spatial patterns hopes to contribute to a better understanding of the multi-causal phenomenon of homicides and to help decision-makers to focus security interventions without forgetting the multidisciplinary approach.